Bellwether and setting trends

Indicators and trends, interesting and intriguing, right? Well, what about who or what is determining these trends…even more interesting. Join me on this podcast as I speak about bellwethers and trends sharing some of my personal favorites and a recommendation for the new year. 

Transcript

Episode 115: Bellwether and setting trends

Hello Everyone, and welcome to the podcast of the Ordinary Maverick. This is Ajey, your host, an ordinary Maverick sharing real life thoughts and experiences and Maverick tips. If you haven’t hit the subscribe button yet, please do so, and you’ll not miss another episode.

Mavericks, wishing each of you a very happy New Year, May 2024 bring us peace, joy and purpose. I chose my words of greeting purposefully. The last couple of years have seen conflicts and disasters in many parts of the world, with unimaginable sufferings and challenges faced by people, by women and children. It’s disturbing to say the very least, and my prayers and thoughts and hope for the new year is that the world comes together to put a stop to this suffering and we move forward together.

Now some may say this is just a pipe dream… not gonna happen. But we need dreams, we need hope. And we need both of these as we step into a New Year.

There’s something about new beginnings and having a chance to press the reset button. Funny how human psychology works, one can reset anytime, right…nothing is stopping us. But the mass appeal, the feeling that everything around us is also resetting…it’s a new year, new beginnings, is powerful and draws us in. 

So, Fellow Mavericks, embrace the new. Embrace the challenge. And explore our talents as being bellwethers.

Now you may ask, what’s a bellwether? A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends. It could refer to someone or something that leads the way or points out a trend. The word originated from sheep. Yes, you heard it right…it was about leading sheep of a flock. There used to be this one sheep that would lead the flock. And this sheep wore a bell which told the shepherd where the flock was. The word is spelt as BELL WETHER. And it comes from the word WETHER – which is a male sheep or goat that was castrated at a young age. Unless one works with livestock, this word may not be familiar. This wether was given a bell and the sound of the bell helped guide the flock. And all of the flock followed the bellwether. 

So in other words, a bellwether is a leader, a trailblazer of sorts. Someone who shows the way….in a manner of speaking. Now of course, one has the traditional leaders of communities, villages, towns, people who are elected and provide leadership and direction as well as support execution of rules and guidelines. 

However, when one uses the word, bellwether, it’s more to indicate someone who sets a trend, who leads and others follow. One example is the Bellwether model, which is used to predict how a State will vote on election day. Bellwethers are polls conducted separately from statewide surveys. So it could be like a ward, a town, a county, a district…some unit that accurately reflects how a State will vote on Election Day. And these ‘Bellwethers’ could change every election cycle as the electorate shifts. These could also be different depending on the type of elections…like is it a mid term bellwether or perhaps the Presidential bellwether or a primary party bell wether. 

This model gained attention when the New Hampshire win for the primary was seen for Hilary Clinton in 2008. Every other poll kept showing Obama winning the State and that too by wide margins. But the new Hampshire towns of Kingston and Sandown both disagreed and predicted that Clinton would be the statewide winner. And that’s what happened…she won that State. So these become bellwethers and part of the model that helps in predictions, trend setting successfully. Interesting, right?

Testament to my now gray hair, I have seen and experienced several trend setting movements of sorts in my lifetime. Some were fun and some critical to our way of life, and some that shaped our thinking and society as well.

I recall many decades back how tough it was to be vegetarian while traveling, how people would just not understand how one couldn’t eat meat and were fascinated to hear how I was ‘surviving’ without meat…especially when I traveled to countries and places that were predominantly meat eating. And then, it became a trend. Bellwethers in society, many famous people came out openly about being vegan. At one point, the different diets, Paleo, Mediterranean etc all reinforced the importance of going vegan…getting your daily dose of fruits and veggies and nuts in. And that’s resulted in vegan and vegetarian options being offered everywhere. In fact one of the places I was most challenged was on airplanes…when often enough there was no vegetarian selection and I had to carry my own food or be content with bread and butter. Of course, there’ve been some fun experiences there…where I’ve opened my tiffin or lunch box and the smells emanating have enticed fellow travelers to comment and start a conversation about the food which ended up having some great plane talk and connects or the flight attendants taking pity on me and bringing me delicious veggie options from the first class cabin which did bring me some envious looks from fellow passengers. Ha ha! 

Well, jokes apart, today, one can choose from several different options, vegan, vegetarian, gluten free etc etc and it’s almost a trend of sorts to not eat meat. Very good for your health I must say..so that’s a good trend. And we must thank the bellwethers who set this up!

So fellow Mavericks, a bellwether is like an indicator that suggest something that’s coming…a trend to watch for…or it could even be a company that should be followed closely as its ups and downs signal a change in its industry or even the economy as a whole. One can also have a bellwether stock that predicts the performance of the market or a sector. 

One easy thing to relate to is fashion. Paris has long been the bellwether of fashion. Trends start there and one can say that Paris is a bellwether of the fashion industry. Many times one can see celebrities that become bellwethers of a particular style of fashion, or even a hair style. And suddenly everyone one is sporting that haircut. The Bellwether haircut! 

Speaking of fashion trends…one which has failed to get me, is this trend of wearing torn outfits. Torn, ripped pants, jeans, shirts, dresses…apparently the more ripped the clothes are, the more fashionable! Ha ha….I recall almost having a mini heart attack when my teenage girls spent all their birthday money a lot of it at that..   on a pair of torn jeans…I was flabbergasted. What? Why spend so much..I can just tear up the jeans at home for free! But and I say But in bold…there’s a way for the ripping…a science and art to it..so one needs to pay to get the right torn jean. That was some bellwether trend in fashion I must say! On a side note….this one is helpful…when I was growing up, we had to discard anything that was torn…but now, we can keep wearing all our torn stuff in the name of fashion!   

Another trend we are seeing increasingly over the last few years is to do with electric cars. EVs as they are called. And hybrids. I must admit as I started reading up more and, in some ways, fell into this trend, all for the right reasons…and happy to do so…. I was mind boggled by the amount of information out there. We recently were looking for a second car and knew we wanted an EV but as we read up, did our own research, spoke to friends, owners of EVs and hybrids, all of it left us more confused and unsure. There were so many ifs and buts to consider, and pros and cons that many a time we almost gve up and thought to fall back on a ‘regular’ car!  But this bellwether for fuel, energy efficient vehicles, climate friendly ones is here to stay. And yes, we were successful in finally getting our EV. There’s a story there and more on this in another episode. 

As we step into another new year, a bellwether trend that we are hearing more and more and one of my personal favorites is ‘work life balance’. I’ve spoken about this in another podcast and shared some personal experiences of ‘switching off’. But I want to take this time to remind us of the Maverick formula, of being in the moment, being true and falling forward. All of these merits being mindful. And practicing mindfulness, having control over our minds and the ability to ‘still it’ is an ever growing and practicing skill that I am committed to. Fellow Mavericks, let’s work hard, let’s do what makes us happy, be busy if that’s what drives you but let’s be mindful through it all. 

It's quality that matters right…not quantity! So, let’s get a trend of lightening breaks a ‘thing’. Speaking of which, we just did a road trip to another country across the border for 36 hours! Ha ha…yep, a quick one. But it was rejuvenating, reinvigorating and we felt every moment…lived each moment. Sightseeing, exploring, eating, drinking, shopping, and catching up with old friends, we did it all! Short breaks rock!

On that note, let me once again wish everyone a very happy new year! Remember connections matter, so keep those messages and calls and emails coming!

And who knows, we may be the bellwether streak for something in the years to come!

My very best, do share your thoughts at ‘theordinarymaverick@gmail.com’ and follow me on Instagram #theordinarymaverick.  I love hearing from you. This is Ajey, signing off and wishing you have an amazing rest of the year and kickstart the new year doing what makes you happy! Keep well. 

This podcast series was put together as a team effort from the Bhardwaj family.  Concept, design, title, researchers and reviewers: Ajey, Sanjana, Avantika and Niharika Bhardwaj; Script– Sanjana; Cover design – Niharika. All rights reserved.